While we may be legitimately annoyed at Deakin's decision to withdraw from Warrnambool, it is worth pausing to contemplate what may have driven that commercial decision. It is likely that there were many factors that impinged on Deakin's analysis of its options for Warrnambool, including the removal of student number capping. However, it is an unavoidable fact that one of the principle drivers is the raw number of local young people who have finished year twelve.
Even if Federation Uni does end up taking over the local campus, the long-term success of any university will be contingent on the number of people who finish school. Education attainment is itself a complex issue, with various factors that make it more or less likely that young people complete their schooling. Ultimately the degree to which we have a strong tertiary education presence will be how well we support children and young people and create the conditions conducive to the competition of secondary school.